Variabilidad, tendencias y proyecciones climáticas de precipitación y temperaturas extremas en Chone, Manabí (2000–2029)

Abstract

This study analyzed the variability, seasonality, and trends of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures in Chone, Manabí Province, Ecuador, during the period 2000–2024, aiming to provide robust scientific evidence for environmental and territorial management in a highly climate-vulnerable region. Monthly data derived from satellite sources were processed using advanced statistical methods in RStudio. The methodology included descriptive statistics, the Seasonal Mann–Kendall trend test, STL decomposition of the series, autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, as well as the estimation of ARIMA and SARIMA models. Model validation was conducted with performance indicators such as RMSE, MAE, and MAPE, followed by climate projections for the period 2025–2029. Results revealed strong interannual variability in precipitation, with minimum values recorded in 2005 and extreme maxima in 2012 and 2023, reflecting the strong influence of seasonal dynamics and ENSO events. Maximum temperature averages remained relatively stable within the 32–35 °C range, although notable warm peaks were identified in the last decade, suggesting increased risk of heat waves. In contrast, minimum temperature exhibited a sustained increase in recent years, pointing to a relevant nocturnal warming process under climate change. The Seasonal Mann–Kendall test confirmed statistically significant upward trends in precipitation and minimum temperature, while maximum temperature did not present a defined trend. Seasonal ARIMA models successfully captured the temporal structure of the series, reproducing the annual seasonality and producing forecasts that indicate thermal stability and persistence of the rainfall regime, albeit with high uncertainty in extreme values. In conclusion, these findings provide a solid basis for anticipating future climate scenarios and represent a practical tool for territorial planning, water resource risk management, and the design of climate adaptation strategies in the Ecuadorian coastal region